The Federal Communications Commission was on the verge of approving a merger between XM and Sirius on Wednesday night, a move that would end a nearly 18-month government review of a deal that would essentially create a monopoly in satellite radio.
Mel Karmazin, the chief executive of Sirius, was the force behind a deal with XM and would run the combined company.
Deborah Taylor Tate, a Republican member of the F.C.C., appeared ready on Wednesday to vote in favor of the deal, which would break a deadlock along party lines among the other four commissioners. She would join Kevin J. Martin, the chairman, in supporting the merger, with certain conditions. Mr. Martin, a Republican, had publicly said that he was in favor of it.
On Wednesday, Jonathan S. Adelstein, a Democratic F.C.C. commissioner, voted against the merger, arguing that it was not in the public interest to let the only two companies in a particular business combine. Both XM and Sirius operate satellites that beam radio signals to subscribers, who must pay for the service; each offers a menu of stations with a much broader geographic reach than terrestrial radio.
In March, the Justice Department, which reviews deals on antitrust grounds, approved the proposed $5 billion merger. Agency officials said they did not view the deal as creating a monopoly because of the many alternatives in audio programming, like iPods and HD Radio.
The combination of Sirius and XM would create one satellite radio company with about 17 million subscribers and programming that would run the gamut from Howard Stern to Oprah Winfrey, Major League Baseball to Martha Stewart.
Although the F.C.C. made no announcement on Wednesday, Mr. Adelstein’s public comments suggested that the commission was close to approval.
“I was hoping to forge a bipartisan solution that would offer consumers more diversity in programming, better price protection, greater choices among innovative devices and real competition with digital radio,” he said in a statement. “Instead, it appears they’re going to get a monopoly with window dressing.”
Patrick Reilly, a spokesman for Sirius, did not return a call seeking comment. Nathaniel Brown, the spokesman for XM, declined to comment. A spokesman at the F.C.C. declined to comment, and Ms. Tate did not immediately return a call for comment.
While no formal announcement was made, many saw the deal as a fait accompli.
“As expected, the Federal Communications vote on the XM-Sirius deal is going to be a 3-2 vote, with Republican Commissioner Deborah Tate casting the decisive vote, most probably, in our view, in favor of the transaction,” wrote Blair Levin, an analyst at Stifel Nicolaus and a former chief of staff at the F.C.C., in a research note on Wednesday.
With the final go-ahead from the government, the deal could close within days, giving a significant victory to Mel Karmazin, the chief executive of Sirius and the person who would run the combined company. A longtime media and entertainment executive — he previously ran CBS and was president of Viacom — Mr. Karmazin was the chief architect of the merger with XM.
Among the conditions that both companies had already accepted were à la carte programming that would give consumers flexibility in which channels they pay for, the permission for any electronics company to develop devices that would receive the service and a price freeze for three years.
Shares in both companies rose on Wednesday in anticipation of approval. XM rose 94 cents, or 10.3 percent, to close at $10.04. Sirius closed at $2.68, up 30 cents, or 12.6 percent.
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